The tight race for Finals has come down to the last round of the home and away season, with plenty still to play out heading into a blockbuster weekend of football. 

With a big win over Sydney last weekend, Geelong has secured their place in September and has moved a step closer to securing a top two spot, needing a victory against Richmond on Saturday to lock in a Qualifying Final at the MCG. 

The equation is simple for the Cats if they win in Round 24, but it becomes far more complicated if they are defeated with the possibility of finishing anywhere from second to seventh the ladder. 

Geelong can still claim the minor premiership with a win on Saturday and an Adelaide loss, but there is a possibility that the Cats could play any team currently sitting between third and ninth on the ladder heading into the weekend. 

Take an initial look below at the possibilities for Geelong in Round 24.  

06:51

Classy Cats Get The Win | Round 23 Game Film

Take a look back at some behind the scenes action, as Geelong get the win in Sydney.

IF GEELONG WIN

  • Lock in a top two spot and a home Qualifying Final at the MCG
  • Will either finish first or second on the ladder
For the Cats to finish first
  • Geelong beat Richmond at the MCG on Saturday afternoon

  • Adelaide lose to North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium

  • The Cats make up the 0.3% gap (approximately a four point differential)
For the Cats to finish second
  • Geelong beat Richmond

  • Adelaide win or draw with North Melbourne
Potential Opponents
  • Brisbane

  • Collingwood

  • Hawthorn

  • GWS Giants

  • Fremantle 

  • Western Bulldogs

  • Gold Coast

IF GEELONG DRAW

  • Will still retain second spot on the ladder
  • Brisbane can tie on points but there is a 26.4% (roughly 450 point) differential between the two sides
Potential Opponents
  • Brisbane

  • Collingwood

  • Hawthorn

  • GWS Giants

  • Fremantle 

  • Gold Coast

 

IF GEELONG LOSE

  • Realistically the Cats would finish between second and fourth on the ladder
  • Highly unlikely but the Cats can slip outside the top four, if other teams can make up a significant percentage differential
For the Cats to finish second
  • Brisbane would need to draw/lose to Hawthorn & the Hawks fail to make up an 18% gap

  • Gold Coast to either lose one of their last two games OR win both and not close the 19.5% gap

  • Collingwood, GWS and Fremantle to lose OR win and not make up the percentage differential
Who can pass the Cats
  • Brisbane with a win over Hawthorn

  • Collingwood with a win and they close a 17.6% gap (roughly a 300 point swing)

  • Hawthorn with a win over Brisbane and they close an 18% gap

  • Gold Coast with two wins and they close a 19.5% gap

  • GWS or Fremantle with a win, but would have to make up more than a 25% differential