With just one match left in the regular season, Geelong’s VFL side still has a chance to reach Finals — but they will need to climb a mountain to get there.

The Cats kept their Finals hopes alive with a hard-fought 14-point win over Essendon in Round 20, adding an important four points to move within one game of 10th spot on the ladder

Geelong now sits 12th on the ladder having leapfrogged North Melbourne, and is just outside the top 10 needed to qualify for the Wildcard Round. Only two teams now stand in the way of their September dream, making the final round a must-win.

To stay in contention, the Cats will need to deliver this Sunday when they travel to Sydney to face the Swans at Tramway Oval. A big win is essential if they are to claw their way back into the top 10.

Find out what needs to happen in Round 21 for Geelong to secure a spot in the VFL Finals.

THE CURRENT STATE OF PLAY

WHAT GEELONG NEED TO DO

• Win their final match of the season

• Boost their percentage by 8% — needing to finish 19 goals ahead of Sydney

Geelong face a monumental challenge this Sunday: not only do they need to defeat Sydney on their home turf, but they must do so by a massive 19-goal margin to break into the top 10.

Fortunately, the numbers suggest the task, while difficult, is not impossible.

Sydney currently sit 18th on the VFL ladder. They rank 20th for points scored (1174) and 3rd for points conceded (1546), highlighting their defensive vulnerability — something Geelong will be eager to exploit.

The Swans’ biggest loss this season came in Round 10, when they were defeated by 94 points at Tramway Oval by the Casey Demons. Meanwhile, Geelong’s biggest win of 2025 was a 50-point victory over the GWS Giants, also in Sydney.

The Cats have also had recent success interstate, winning their last three away games against the Swans — though those came with a combined margin of just 21 points. Still, with Geelong’s recent uptick in form, there’s hope they can break that trend wide open.

If everything falls into place on Sunday, Geelong could pull off the seemingly impossible and claim the final Wildcard Round spot.

WHAT ELSE NEEDS TO HAPPEN

Williamstown must lose their final match

With Coburg playing their last game in Round 20 and leapfrogging into 10th place, Williamstown have one final opportunity to reclaim that spot. Their last chance comes in Round 21 when they face Richmond.

Williamstown currently sit on 36 points with a 103.4% percentage. If Geelong manage to pull off a historic win over Sydney, they will need Richmond — who have already secured a Finals berth — to defeat Williamstown, keeping them from earning any more premiership points.

Carlton must lose or fall short on percentage

Carlton remain a serious threat to Geelong's Finals hopes. Sitting just one place behind the Cats in 13th, the Blues are on equal points (32) but trail by only 3% in percentage — meaning they are still in the hunt.

Geelong’s advantage? Carlton are set to take on the second-placed Footscray Bulldogs at Mission Whitten Oval — one of the toughest fixtures possible.

To overtake Geelong on percentage, the Blues would need to produce a staggering 23-goal win over the Bulldogs — an unlikely outcome considering Footscray have won their last five matches. Additionally, Carlton have lost their last three away games to the Bulldogs, further stacking the odds against them.