Geelong's VFL Finals hopes are still alive heading into the penultimate round of the home and away season, with a pivotal clash against Essendon awaiting at GMHBA Stadium on Saturday afternoon. 

The VFL competition will once again feature a 10-team Finals series this year, with seventh down to tenth on the ladder to play in a Wildcard Round and the winners will progress onwards, earning a spot in the final eight. 

As it currently stands, the Cats sit two wins and a little bit of percentage outside the Top 10 with clashes against Essendon and Sydney ahead to finish the regular season. 

Geelong will also need a few other results to fall their way, with five teams still in the running for that last spot in September. 

Check out what needs to happen over the next fortnight for the VFL Cats to secure a place in Finals. 

THE CURRENT STATE OF PLAY

POSITION TEAM PLAYED POINTS PERCENTAGE
10th Williamstown 17 36 103.4
11th Coburg Lions 17 32 104
12th North Melbourne 16 30 100.4
13th Geelong 16 28 96
14th Carlton 16 28 92.2

WHAT GEELONG NEED TO DO

  • Win both remaining games
  • Ideally gain around eight percent, needing roughly two 10-goal wins 

The first part of the equation is simple for the Cats, they need to win both remaining games to give themselves a chance at securing 10th position on the ladder. 

Those wins would put them equal with Williamstown on points as it currently stands, meaning they would then need to close the percentage gap which is currently at 7.4%. 

On paper, this certainly looks achievable with the Cats set to face two bottom-four teams in their final games of the home and away season. 

First they square off against Essendon at GMHBA Stadium, the Bombers sitting in 20th position on the ladder with three wins from 16 games. The final clash will be against Sydney, who sit in 18th on the ladder with just five wins for the year. 

Win both matches by a decent enough margin and the Cats can give themselves every chance of featuring in the VFL Finals. 

WHAT ELSE NEEDS TO HAPPEN

  • Williamstown to lose their final game

The next part of the formula for the Cats is relying on Williamstown to drop their final match in the regular season. 

The Seagulls currently occupy 10th spot on the ladder and a win in their last game would instantly eliminate the Cats from contention, but they have a bye this week and then face an 8th placed Richmond in the final round. 

  • Coburg to lose their final game OR win by a small margin

The Coburg Lions have their final game of the home and away season this week taking on Port Melbourne, before having a bye in the last week of the regular season. 

They currently sit a game ahead of the Cats so even with a win Geelong can still equal them on points, but they also have a stronger percentage than the Cats which means Geelong will be hoping for a win by a small margin as the worst case scenario. 

  • North Melbourne to lose one of their remaining two games

The Kangaroos had a draw earlier this season which means they sit two points clear of the Cats, also meaning that two wins in the final two rounds for North Melbourne would eliminate Geelong from contention. 

One win for North Melbourne however and two wins from Geelong would see the Cats leapfrog them, meaning they need the Kangaroos to be defeated in one of their remaining two games. 

  • Carlton to lose a game OR not gain a big percentage

Geelong and Carlton sit level on points and are only separated by 3.8%, meaning the Cats will need to keep their noses in front over the final two games. 

The Blues have a tough assignment in the final round against the second placed Footscray Bulldogs, but Geelong will also be looking to keep a greater percentage than Carlton to eliminate any doubt.