With six rounds of football left the come, the fight for finals positions is about to get very real.
The Cats loss in Adelaide has left Geelong with some critical games of football on the horizon, starting this Saturday night with a date with the Demons at GMHBA Stadium.
Things are unbelievably tight in the middle of the table, with the 12th-placed Bombers just one win adrift of the Cats in eighth position.
Here’s the run home for the likely finals contenders.
Richmond
Fixture: St Kilda (Etihad Stadium), Collingwood (MCG), Geelong (MCG), Gold Coast (Metricon), Essendon (MCG), Western Bulldogs (MCG)
Current Wins: 12
Current Percentage: 135.0%
Expected Wins: 16-17
The Run Home: Issues away from home don’t matter when the Tigers only have the one more away trip for the year. Richmond won’t be missing the eight this year.
West Coast
Fixture: Western Bulldogs (Optus Stadium), North Melbourne (Blundstone), Fremantle (Optus Stadium), Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval), Melbourne (Optus Stadium), Brisbane (The Gabba)
Current Wins: 12
Current Percentage: 122.4%
Expected Wins: 15-17
The Run Home: Bar a dramatic fadeout, the Eagles are home. The Naitanui injury hurts, but with 12 wins on the board they will be hard to dislodge.
Collingwood
Fixture: North Melbourne (MCG), Richmond (MCG), Sydney (SCG), Brisbane (Etihad), Port Adelaide (MCG), Fremantle (Optus Stadium)
Current Wins: 11
Current Percentage: 117.6%
Expected Wins: 13-16
The Run Home: With four games in Melbourne to come and 11 wins in the bank the Pies should be safe in the eight. Will need to secure wins against Fremantle and Brisbane and win one against North or Port Adelaide to be sure.
Sydney
Fixture: Gold Coast (SCG), Essendon (Etihad), Collingwood (SCG), Melbourne (MCG), GWS (Spotless), Hawthorn (SCG)
Current Wins: 11
Current Percentage: 117.3%
Expected Wins: 14-16
The Run Home: If the Swans can win three in Sydney they should be home and hosed. Have the break on the chasing pack.
Port Adelaide
Fixture: GWS (Adelaide Oval), Western Bulldogs (Mars Stadium), Adelaide (Adelaide Oval), West Coast (Adelaide Oval), Collingwood (MCG), Essendon (Adelaide Oval)
Current Wins: 11
Current Percentage: 115.9%
Expected Wins: 13-16
The Run Home: The Power should be relatively safe on 11 wins, but with no easy games left on the schedule Port Adelaide must finish the year strong. Port has one of the lower percentages of the top eight sides, so must keep winning games.
Melbourne
Fixture: Geelong (GMHBA Stadium), Adelaide (Adelaide Oval), Gold Coast (MCG), Sydney (MCG), West Coast (MCG), GWS (MCG)
Current Wins: 10
Current Percentage: 130.2%
Expected Wins: 12-15
The Run Home: Melbourne has a difficult finish to the year, however four consecutive games at the MCG will help. Nearly every game Melbourne will play could go either way, making their final position hard to predict. A huge percentage of 130.2 will help.
GWS
Fixture: Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval), St Kilda (Spotless), Carlton (Etihad), Adelaide (UNSW Canberra), Sydney (Spotless), Melbourne (MCG)
Current Wins: 9.5
Current Percentage: 111.1%
Expected Wins: 12.5-13.5
The Run Home: The Giants are hitting their straps at the right time and are a formidable opponent at their best. A final round matchup with Melbourne could shape the eight, while the draw they have in hand makes percentage irrelevant.
Geelong
Fixture: Melbourne (GMHBA Stadium), Brisbane (GMHBA Stadium), Richmond (MCG), Hawthorn (MCG), Fremantle (GMHBA Stadium), Gold Coast (GMHBA Stadium)
Current Wins: 9
Current Percentage: 119.5%
Expected Wins: 12-14
The Run Home: The Cats have a favourable run to the finish line, with four GMHBA Stadium games to come. Fremantle, the Suns and Brisbane will all make the trip down to Geelong, meaning if the Cats can pinch a win against Melbourne or deal with the Hawks they will be in prime position to secure a finals berth.
North Melbourne
Fixture: Collingwood (MCG), West Coast (Blundstone), Brisbane (The Gabba), Western Bulldogs (Etihad), Adelaide (Adelaide Oval), St Kilda (Etihad)
Current Wins: 9
Current Percentage: 114.2%
Expected Wins: 12-13
The Run Home: The Kangaroos have performed valiantly so far this season and came agonisingly close against the Swans yesterday. Games against Collingwood at the MCG and Adelaide in Adelaide are huge.
Hawthorn
Fixture: Carlton (Etihad), Fremantle (Optus Stadium), Essendon (MCG), Geelong (MCG), St Kilda (Etihad), Sydney (SCG)
Current Wins: 9
Current Percentage: 114.0%
Expected Wins: 12-14
The Run Home: The loss to Brisbane was a huge letdown for the Hawks, who could have been feeling a lot more comfortable inside the eight. Games against Geelong at the MCG and Sydney in Sydney become critical.
Adelaide
Fixture: Brisbane (The Gabba), Melbourne (Adelaide Oval), Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval), GWS (UNSW Canberra), North Melbourne (Adelaide Oval), Carlton (Etihad)
Current Wins: 8
Current Percentage: 98.7%
Expected Wins: 11-13
The Run Home: The Crows could very well win the games they need to be right in the mix, with three games at home and matchups against Carlton and Brisbane on the horizon. Adelaide will need to have some percentage boosting wins though, with 98,7% a real weakness.
Essendon
Fixture: Fremantle (Etihad), Sydney (Etihad), Hawthorn (MCG), St Kilda (Etihad), Richmond (MCG), Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)
Current Wins: 8
Current Percentage: 97.7%
Expected Wins: 10-12
The Run Home: Like Adelaide, an unhealthy percentage makes it hard for the Dons. With games against Sydney and Richmond as well as a trip to Adelaide to take on the Power, it’s a huge ask for the red and black.
Fremantle
Fixture: Essendon (Etihad), Hawthorn (Optus Satdium), West Coast (Optus Stadium), Carlton (Optus Stadium), Geelong (GMHBA Stadium), Collingwood (Optus Stadium)
Current Wins: 7
Current Percentage: 83.6%
Expected Wins: 8-11
The Run Home: The Docker’s percentage almost puts them out of the hunt, with a large deficit in this area meaning they will essentially need to win every game from here on out.
