In 2015, the Cats are thrilled to be partnering with fantasy experts footyprophet.com to bring you all the insight you need about AFL Fantasy and the Cats’ fantasy value. Stay tuned for a wealth of information from the experts as they help you to fantasy glory.
FORM & HISTORY
Recently, Geelong holds a strong advantage over the Blues, winning the last six encounters, however last year both clashes featuring these two teams went down to the wire. Joel Selwood in Round 12 and Allen Christensen in Round 21 kicked the winning goals for Geelong in both of their 2014 clashes to clinch the victory for the Cats.
Carlton will enter the Friday night blockbuster in 18th position and Geelong in 13th. Both teams have been underwhelming in 2015 as both clubs look for consistency with their performance. Nothing short of the four points will be tolerated for each team, although Geelong should enter the game as favourite.
THE LEAD UP
In Round 7, both Geelong and Carlton fell short against the New South Wales based clubs, as they were unable to capitalise when it counted. Carlton were thumped by Greater Western Sydney, while Geelong were competitive against Sydney for most of the match before falling short when the Swans came home strong in the final quarter.
With mounting pressure on Carlton to perform following a 1-6 record, a win against the injury-plagued Cats is not out of the question. The clash looms as a potential danger game for Geelong who desperately need to bank the four points in order to stay within reach of finals contention.
Geelong will be forced to make at least one change from last weekend’s line-up as Mitch Duncan ($483 000, MID) suffered what was described as a “relatively serious” injury to his foot and was substituted out of the game. George Horlin-Smith ($333 000, MID) may be an adequate replacement after gathering 20 disposals in the VFL, and may also see the return of veterans Andrew Mackie ($458 000, DEF) and James Kelly ($459 000, MID/DEF) from injuries. Tom Hawkins ($335 000, FWD) will also make a return after his late withdrawal against the Swans.
For Carlton, ruckman Matthew Kreuzer ($244 000, RUC) will have to ply his trade in the VFL for at least another week as he returns from injury, while Patrick Cripps ($350 000, MID) will return after his late withdrawal against the Giants. The selection committee has swung the axe with four changes after their 78-point loss in Round 7.
KEY MATCH-UP
On paper, it may seem as if Geelong have a cakewalk this week with Carlton sitting 18th on the ladder. With that being said, the key factor in deciding this game is the midfield battle. Geelong skipper Joel Selwood is likely to be tagged, and with an injury list containing the likes of Mitch Duncan, James Kelly and Jimmy Bartel ($511 000, FWD), the Cats’ midfield contingent is moderately bare. A matchup between Steve Johnson ($453 000, MID) and Bryce Gibbs ($481 000, MID) looks imminent as two of their respective side’s best midfielders. Johnson in particular will need to continue his strong vein of form and providing support for Selwood.
Despite their losing record, Carlton rank #1 for centre clearances while Geelong are not far behind in sixth. If Carlton can get on top of the clearances, the game could inevitably be a much closer contest than many people predict. As for Johnson and Gibbs, both have a proven track record, however have misfired this season and are only just finding their form in AFL Fantasy.
BOOM OR BUST
Joel Selwood
Selwood ($548 000, MID) has been Geelong’s top performer again in 2015, however is usually met with opposition tag, which is likely against Carlton. Due to his tags, Selwood has seen a great variance in scores this season and while he has scores above 100 on three occasions, another three scores below 85 show the influence tags are having on him. In Round 8, Selwood is likely to face the fire from Andrew Carrazzo, who he is more than capable of overcoming. Selwood has gathered over 30 disposals only once this year, which was against the Gold Coast who is in a similar predicament as Carlton. This clash will give Selwood another chance to reward his owners after a patchy start to his 2015 fantasy campaign.
Jackson Thurlow
This season, Thurlow ($364 000, DEF/MID) has promoted himself into the top echelon of fantasy defenders and at just 21 has enormous potential for the future. With Andrew Mackie sidelined for much of the season, Thurlow has assumed the rebounding defensive role, averaging 84 over his five appearances. He has played just 15 games over his career and will always be subject to the odd blunder while still developing, however consecutive 100s in the last fortnight demonstrates his prowess as a fantasy option. The real test this week for Thurlow will be with the return of Andrew Mackie into the line-up. Mackie hasn’t played since Round 2, and is yet to play a game this season with Thurlow in the side. If all permits, Thurlow shouldn’t be restricted to any extent and may be pushed further afield in the absence of Mitch Duncan.
FOOTY PROPHET'S FANTASY FIVE
- Mark Blicavs ($476 000, MID/RUC)
- Steve Johnson ($453 000, MID)
- Joel Selwood ($548 000, MID)
- Steven Motlop ($502 000, MID/FWD)
- Josh Caddy ($389 000, MID)
